The Future of Employer-Sponsored Coverage
It is early days. No one knows what will happen legislatively in 2017. But large employers are as anxious as all health care stakeholders about what the new brand of change may bring. There is high uncertainty given the volatility of the political and policy process that is unfolding and given the unpredictability of the Trump administration. Click to Learn More What are employers worried about? Here are a few issues to watch: Tax-deductibility of employer-sponsored health insurance: This has to be the No. 1 and immediate issue. Currently, this is worth $260 billion per annum in tax benefits. If it were to be chipped away at, either in the form of the current law’s planned reinstatement of the Cadillac tax or some Republican proposals to scale back deductibility, this will have a significant negative effect on employers. Pharmaceutical costs: Rising drug costs are a huge issue for employers and indeed for almost every health care stakeholder I work with. In most commercial health insurance plans (including self-insured plans), per-member, per-month drug costs now exceed inpatient hospital costs. The shift to specialty pharmaceuticals and price gouging, even on generics, is taking its toll. At a recent PBGH or Pacific Business Group on Health board retreat, the top issue raised by all participants was specialty pharmacy, not only because of the salience of the cost (explaining perhaps a full quarter of the increase in trend) but because the private sector options to control pharmaceutical costs are minimal. Trump recognized the drug cost issue in his campaign, but after he won the election, his website no longer speaks of controlling prices of drugs. Instead, there are visionary statements about innovation. Pharma may be getting a pass, as evidenced by the easy passage of the 21st Century Cures Act. But for employers, this issue is not going away. As Lansky of PBGH told me: “Employers aren’t just mad about price gouging but have looked very hard at the pharmaceutical supply chain in order to restructure it — even to the point of talking directly to manufacturers. They want to challenge the very nature of the business: formulary placement, the split between medical benefit and the drug benefit, rebates to pharmacy benefit managers, coupons that insulate consumers from cost sharing, intellectual property and patent rules, etc. They know that beating up on the pharmacy benefit managers (like beating up on the health plans) is not productive; the system needs re-engineering, and no one is motivated to do it except the employers who are paying.” The inevitable cost shift: It may be off in the distance, but if coverage is eroded for the 20 million or so who benefited from the ACA and if the federal money for Medicaid expansion and exchange subsidies is geared back, providers will seek to replace that revenue from employers. Good luck with that, to all concerned. Employers stepping up to manage their health costs directly: Many sophisticated employers will double down on their management efforts with narrow networks or using ACO arrangements…