National Health Expenditure Projections 2013-2023
Major Findings Health spending is projected to grow at an average rate of 5.7 percent for 2013-2023, 1.1percentage points faster than expected average annual growth in the Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). Health spending growth for 2013 is projected to have remained slow at 3.6 percent due tothe modest economic recovery, the impacts of sequestration and continued slow growth in the utilization of Medicare services, and continued increases in cost-sharing requirements for the privately insured. Improving economic conditions, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage expansions, and the aging of the population, drive faster projected growth in health spending in 2014 and beyond. Expected growth for 2014 is 5.6 percent, as 9 million Americans are projected to gain health insurance coverage, predominantly through Medicaid or the Health Insurance Marketplaces. Average annual projected growth of 6.0 percent per year is projected for 2015 through 2023, largely as a result of the continued implementation of the ACA coverage expansions, faster projected economic growth, and the aging of the population. While projected growth is faster compared to recent experience, it is still slower than the growth observed over the longer-term history. The number of uninsured people is expected to decline from 45 million people in 2012 to 23 million people by 2023. By 2023, health expenditures financed by federal, state, and local governments are projected to account for 48 percent of national health spending and to reach a total of $2.5 trillion; in 2012, such expenditures constituted 44 percent of national health spending and $1.2 trillion. Health spending is projected to be 19.3 percent of GDP by 2023, up from 17.2 percent in 2012. Major Findings by Payer Medicare Due to a deceleration in growth driven by sequestration and lower utilization across services, Medicare spending growth is projected to have slowed to 3.3 percent in 2013, down from 4.8 percent growth in 2012, and to have totaled $591.2 billion. Projected Medicare spending growth of 4.2 percent in 2014 reflects both an expected increase in use and intensity of Medicare services, alongside slow increases in payment rates. For 2015, Medicare growth is projected to slow to 2.7 percent, mostly due to lower payments to Medicare Advantage plans. For 2016 through 2023, projected Medicare spending growth is expected to rebound to 7.3 percent per year due to increased enrollment by the baby boomers, increased utilization of care, and higher payment rates driven by improved economic conditions, which increase growth in the cost of input goods and services used to treat Medicarepatients. These drivers in growth will be partially offset by slow growth in payment updates due to provisions in the Affordable Care Act and sequestration. Medicaid Medicaid spending is anticipated to have grown 6.7 percent and to have reached $449.5 billion in 2013, driven by higher payments rates to primary care physicians called for in the Affordable Care Act, as well as actions by states that increased provider reimbursement rates and expanded benefits. Total Medicaid spending is projected to grow 12.8 percent in 2014 due to increased enrollment…